Monaco: The Principality of Ultra-Precision

So what did we learn in Barcelona, after a three week-hiatus that allowed most teams to regroup and significantly modify their cars? Let’s review:

• The Red Bulls remain the fastest cars with two outstanding drivers, but they haven’t entirely solved their reliability problems. Still, if you bet your money on Red Bull, you will be no fool. They don’t even have an “F-Duct” yet!

• The McLarens seem to be next best, and with two World Champions at the wheel to boot. However, they still lack speed and Hamilton is proving himself to be too rough on his machinery (remember Monza last year) to score consistently. Button, in his smooth way, keeps accumulating points and leading the championship, 21 points ahead of his teammate, in 6th place.

• Ferrari are about equal to McLaren, with Alonso having aggressively seized the leadership from Massa in just five races. The Modena team still lacks speed, however, compared to Red Bull. The engine is the problem, it appears. With the current regulations, it will be tough to increase performance.

• Behind those, the thoroughly revised “à la Schumi” Silver Arrows have progressed, but all to the benefit of Schumacher, leaving Nico Rosberg thoroughly confused. By the time Ross Brawn and Norbert Haug figure out the right mix, it will likely be too late in the season.

• Next is Renault. They’re performing well, but not well enough. Rumors that Kubica might replace Massa next year at Ferrari will help neither team. Could Vladimir Putin pour in more money into Renault? The French car maker is a major player in the Russian market with top-level government contacts. The teams second driver, Vitaly Petrov and his attractive mother/manager, have top connections with the Kremlin. Everything is possible.

• The rest of the pack, Force India, Torro Rosso, Williams, Sauber, etc., have much work to do. They will likely not score any meaningful points until after the mid-season, if that. Still, it’s a joy to see some young drivers such as Nico Hulkenberg and Jaime Algersuiari cutting their teeth aggressively on the track.

• As to Jarno Trulli, Rubens Barichello and Pedro de la Rossa, they are sadly and clearly in their twilight years. Michael Schumacher remains an enigma; while Bruno Senna is surely no Ayrton.

So what does all that tell us about Monaco? Well, as we said at the beginning, it’s a casino. The drivers who can combine top speed with smooth precision for a hellish two hours have the best chance.

Qualifying, of course is the first key. The top drivers are already clamoring for an exceptional two-tier qualifying session (split between top teams and lesser teams) in order to avoid traffic slow-downs. Seems reasonable to us, but who knows what the FIA machinery will produce for an answer. Let’s give Jean Todt and Charles Whiting the benefit of the doubt.

Therefore, assuming a reasonably “clean” qualifying session, the two Red Bulls, the two McLarens and Alonso are likely to command the top five spots. Massa, given his experience, could do well, too. The big “Joker” will be Michael Schumacher. Other outsiders are “Lionheart” Kubica and perhaps Adrian Sutil.

If that’s the general composition of the front grid, and barring a massive collision in the first lap (or turn), the likeliest contenders to lose concentration during the grueling two hours of precision driving are Hamilton, Webber and Sutil.

So, while in no way promising to commit Hara Kiri if I’m proven wrong, here’s my podium prediction (remember: “barring a massive collision, etc,”): Vettel, Alonso and Button. Possible outsiders: Schumi and Massa –giving seniority a premium here.

Voilà. Oh, we forgot the weather. All this assumes a dry track. If it rains: “Rien ne va plus.”

Philippe Defechereux
New York City

May 10, 2010