Formula 1 Pre-Race Preview: Shanghai

Oh, well, some people like to take risks, others don’t. I do, which is why I wrote two books about James Dean. And though I’m a great admirer of his rebel side, so far I have 40 more years on the odometer than he did when he died. So I’m diving into the cold waters of forecasting, for Pete’s sake.

In ancient times, no major battle was ever going to be fought before Oracles or steaming calf livers had been consulted. Intriguingly, those forecasting methods might have been more useful in Melbourne and Sepang than the super-computers and highly-paid meteorologists every top team now has.

At any rate, I have no idea what the weather forecast for Shanghai is for Sunday. Based on the last two Grand Prix’s, this means I have an edge. So here we go.

Ferrari are the ones to watch. They’re leading the Championship, and while Alonso DNF’d in Sepang, he did this on the penultimate lap after having fought an absolutely brilliant battle for points with a faulty gearbox. Massa finished well, given the disastrous misjudgment of the team about the weather forecast during Q3. The Brazilian now leads the Championship on points.

The Red Bulls and their two exciting drivers are on top of the heap, right now, despite their reliability problems in the season’s first two Grand Prix’s. Vettel is obviously a superb talent and the one to watch.

Next come the “Silver Arrows.” It seems Ross Brawn was better on his own, such as last year, than under a heavy Merces-Benz German corporate umbrella, such as now. And now, they have “Schumi,” of course. Nico Rosberg is eating his lunch as there are already rumors “Der Kaiser” might not even last the season. Personally, we thought he looked quite old at Sepang, by F1 standards. Cannot see him do anything brilliant at Monaco, for instance – and if he ever parked his car again in the wrong corner during qualifying, this time he would surely be banned from the sport.

Sir Jacky Stewart just opined that Schumi’s biggest mistake was to quit too early, rather than come back this year. Though Sir Stewart does not entirely dismiss Schumacher’s chances to make it back to the top, the texture of his interview is clearly doubtful. Motorcycle racing may be in Schumi’s 2011 future.

And this leads us to say that Jenson Button was probably very smart and talking to the right oracles when he eloped to McLaren. Sure, new teammate Lewis Hamilton is the best overtaker in the field these days. But when splendid overtaking maneuvers only serve to correct qualifying mistakes, as opposed to making your own brilliant and daring pit stop just when the rain is about to stop, well, that’s good for the show, but not for the points. Most important, Brit Jenson seems to fit quite easily and naturally within the team, unlike Spaniard Fernando Alonso a few years back. In human affairs, culture more often than not trumps everything.

Sure there are also Robert Kubica and a surprisingly resilient Renault team. Even Vitaly Petrov showed some strong mettle in Sepang, though he DNF’d again. Then many of the other newcomers did wall too, a few even giving a hard time to “the establishment.” In summary, all great fun.

And so what about Shanghai? The “weather gods” are not answering their iPhones. If it rains, and depending when and how, all bets are off again.

If it’s dry throughout, look for a fierce battle between Ferrari and Red Bull, with McLaren and Mercedes-Benz nipping at their heels, looking for opportunities. Kubica will be up there, too.

Alonso or Vettel. Both on the podium.

Breaking News:

• During the interseason, McLaren developed a very mysterious “F-Duct” to boost the cars aerodynamics, which partially accounts for their speed (see pic). The other teams are asking for a FIA investigation. Max Mosley if reportedly going mad he no longer can do anything about it.

• Flavio Briatore and the FIA have just reached an out-of-court settlement, which will allow the fiery Italian to come back to F1 in 2014. Well, things will be quite different then, and we will have had much time to rest from the old destructive FIA politics that ended last year.

Philippe Defechereux
New York City